According to @rovercrc, Bitcoin (BTC) appears poised for a potential run to a new all-time high, supported by a confluence of bullish macroeconomic factors. Key drivers include a weakening U.S. dollar index (DXY), which has dropped to its lowest level since February 2022, a development Bitwise's Andre Dragosch called "very bullish" for Bitcoin. Additionally, a strong positive correlation of 0.80 exists between BTC and Nvidia (NVDA) shares, which recently hit a new record high. Traders are also increasingly pricing in a Federal Reserve rate cut for July, with interest rate swaps indicating expectations for 60 basis points of easing this year, according to Bloomberg. These factors are compounded by record-high U.S. equity indexes, a surging M2 money supply, and recessionary signals from the bond market's steepening yield curve and declining consumer confidence, all of which encourage a flight to risk assets like Bitcoin.

According to @rovercrc, the Bitcoin-to-Gold price ratio (BTC/XAU) has signaled a significant bullish continuation after surging over 10% and breaking out from a bull flag pattern. This technical breakout suggests the ratio could rally towards 42.00, potentially exceeding its previous record high, an event historically driven by strong uptrends in Bitcoin's (BTC) price. However, traders should exercise caution due to a developing pattern in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY's weekly chart is approaching a 'death cross,' where the 50-week moving average crosses below the 200-week moving average. While typically a bearish indicator for the dollar, historical analysis shows this specific pattern has consistently acted as a 'bear trap,' marking bottoms for the DXY and preceding sharp rallies. Since a stronger dollar often creates headwinds for cryptocurrency prices, this historical tendency suggests that betting on continued dollar weakness to fuel the crypto bull run may be a risky strategy.

According to @balajis, Bitcoin's (BTC) bullish case is gaining momentum, supported by several key macroeconomic factors. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen to its lowest level since February 2022, a development that Andre Dragosch of Bitwise described as 'very bullish' for global money supply and Bitcoin. Further strengthening this outlook is the strong positive correlation between BTC and AI-related stock Nvidia (NVDA), which recently hit a record high; their 90-day correlation coefficient stands at a significant 0.80. Additionally, indicators are pointing towards a potential recession and a more dovish Federal Reserve. Wealth advisor Kurt S. Altrichter noted that a steepening yield curve is a historical recession precursor, while the Conference Board's consumer expectations index has dropped below a key recessionary threshold. These developments have led traders to price in a potential Fed rate cut in July, with Bloomberg reporting that interest rate swaps now reflect easing expectations.

According to Andre_Dragosch, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen below 98 for the first time since early 2022, creating a favorable long-term environment for risk assets like Bitcoin (BTC). The source attributes this decline to factors including lower-than-expected U.S. inflation and a 99.8% market-priced probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Despite this bullish macro backdrop, short-term technical analysis for Bitcoin suggests immediate downside risks. The 14-day stochastic indicator is on the verge of crossing below 80 from overbought territory, signaling a potential sell-off. This technical pattern suggests BTC could revisit sub-$100,000 levels in the short term, while a firm move above the current consolidation would be needed to target $140,000.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen below the 98 mark for the first time since early 2022, a development that could signal a significant run for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC). A weaker dollar is historically correlated with a risk-on sentiment, which eases global financial conditions and boosts liquidity for speculative assets. This decline is attributed to several factors, including U.S. headline inflation coming in at 2.4%, slightly below expectations, as cited in the report. This has solidified market beliefs in a more dovish Federal Reserve, with the CME FedWatch Tool now indicating a 99.8% probability of a rate cut at the June meeting. The analysis also notes that growing de-dollarization narratives are further pressuring the dollar, creating a potentially favorable environment for a crypto market rally.

According to @MI_Algos, Bitcoin (BTC) is facing significant short-term downward pressure, with technical indicators suggesting a potential drop below the $100,000 level. The 14-day stochastic oscillator is showing a bearish signal as it prepares to cross below 80 from the overbought region, a pattern that previously led to sell-offs. This analysis points to immediate support between $103,000 and $103,500, with key resistance near $106,000. Conflicting with this bearish technical outlook, data from Santiment reveals that retail investor sentiment has fallen to its most pessimistic level since early April, which historically acted as a contrarian indicator preceding a price rally. Furthermore, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has experienced its worst six-month performance since 1991, breaking a 14-year trendline, which analyst Dan Tapiero suggests could be a major long-term bullish catalyst for Bitcoin.

According to @rovercrc, the Bitcoin-to-Gold (BTC/XAU) price ratio surged over 10% last week, confirming a bullish flag pattern breakout that signals a potential continuation of its rally. Data from TradingView shows this breakout could push the ratio towards a new record high of 42.00. The bullish case for Bitcoin (BTC) is further strengthened by several macroeconomic factors. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) has fallen to its lowest level since February 2022, a development that Andre Dragosch of Bitwise calls 'very bullish' for global money supply and Bitcoin. Additionally, a strong positive correlation of 0.80 exists between BTC and Nvidia (NVDA) shares, which recently hit a new record high, indicating sustained risk-on sentiment. Bond market indicators, such as a steepening yield curve, and declining consumer confidence are also signaling a potential recession, leading traders to price in Federal Reserve rate cuts, which historically benefits assets like Bitcoin.

According to @MilkRoadDaily, several key macroeconomic factors are bolstering the bullish case for Bitcoin (BTC), with some analysts now seeing a potential year-end price of $200,000. Matt Mena of 21Shares stated that softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data could be the catalyst that puts a "$200K Bitcoin by year-end... firmly in play." This sentiment is supported by the U.S. dollar index (DXY) falling to its lowest level since early 2022, a development Bitwise's Andre Dragosch called "very bullish" for Bitcoin. Further strengthening the risk-on environment, Nvidia (NVDA) shares hit a record high, maintaining a strong 90-day correlation of 0.80 with BTC. Additional market signals, including a steepening yield curve and declining consumer confidence, are increasing trader expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, which historically benefits assets like Bitcoin.

According to @MilkRoadDaily, the bullish case for Bitcoin (BTC) is gaining strength due to several key macroeconomic factors. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen to its lowest level since February 2022, a development that Bitwise's Andre Dragosch described as "very bullish" for global money supply and Bitcoin, as it tends to encourage risk-taking. Concurrently, AI chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) saw its shares hit a record high, maintaining a strong positive 90-day correlation of 0.80 with BTC, suggesting their price trends are closely linked. Further supporting the risk-on sentiment are signals of a potential recession and subsequent Federal Reserve easing. The bond market's yield curve is steepening, a historical recession indicator noted by wealth advisor Kurt S. Altrichter, and the Conference Board's consumer expectations index has dropped below a key recessionary threshold. Citing the CME FedWatch tool and Bloomberg, traders are now increasingly pricing in Fed rate cuts, with swaps indicating potential easing as early as July, creating a favorable environment for assets like Bitcoin.

According to @rovercrc, the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady while forecasting weaker economic growth and persistent inflation is strengthening the bull case for Bitcoin (BTC). Key bullish indicators include the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) falling to its lowest level since early 2022, a development that analyst Andre Dragosch reportedly called "very bullish" for Bitcoin. Further support comes from the strong 0.80 90-day correlation between BTC and AI-stock leader Nvidia (NVDA), which recently hit a record high, signaling a continued risk-on appetite. Additionally, recessionary signals, such as a steepening yield curve noted by wealth advisor Kurt S. Altrichter and declining consumer confidence, are leading traders to price in future Fed rate cuts, creating a favorable macro environment for crypto assets.

According to @MilkRoadDaily, the bullish case for Bitcoin (BTC) is gaining momentum due to several key macroeconomic factors. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen to its lowest point since February 2022, a development that Bitwise's Andre Dragosch described as 'very bullish' for Bitcoin, as cited in the report. Further supporting this outlook, Nvidia (NVDA) shares reached a new record high, which is significant for traders given the strong 90-day positive correlation of 0.80 between NVDA and BTC. Additional recessionary signals, such as a steepening yield curve noted by wealth advisor Kurt S. Altrichter and a drop in the consumer expectations index reported by the Conference Board, are increasing market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Citing Bloomberg, the report notes that interest rate swaps are now pricing in potential easing as early as July, creating a favorable environment for risk assets like Bitcoin.

According to Andre Dragosch, the bull case for Bitcoin (BTC) is gaining significant strength from key macroeconomic developments. Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise, highlighted on X that the U.S. dollar index (DXY) falling to its lowest level since March 2022 has 'very bullish implications for global money supply growth and bitcoin.' This sentiment is amplified by the strong positive correlation between Bitcoin and Nvidia (NVDA), which recently hit a record high, with their 90-day correlation coefficient standing at 0.80. Further supporting a risk-on environment, bond markets are signaling a potential recession, as noted by wealth advisor Kurt S. Altrichter, who pointed to the steepening yield curve. This is coupled with a drop in consumer confidence and softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data. Matt Mena, a strategist at 21Shares, suggests these factors, especially the CPI report, could be the catalyst that puts a '$200K Bitcoin by year-end... firmly in play,' as traders increasingly price in Fed rate cuts for 2024.

According to @rovercrc, there is caution surrounding a potential Bitcoin (BTC) double top pattern forming with peaks near $110,000, but a major price crash seems unlikely without a black swan event. Katalin Tischhauser, Head of Investment Research at Sygnum Bank, stated in an interview that the current bull run is more resilient than previous cycles due to 'sticky institutional capital'. This is evidenced by over $48 billion in net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, as tracked by Farside Investors. Tischhauser also suggests the four-year halving cycle's influence may be 'dead' as institutional demand, which removes liquidity from the market, now has a greater impact than miner selling. Further strengthening the bull case, Andre Dragosch of Bitwise highlighted the weakening U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) as 'very bullish' for Bitcoin. Additionally, a strong 0.80 correlation between BTC and the record-high Nvidia (NVDA) stock indicates continued risk-on sentiment, while recession signals could prompt earlier Fed rate cuts, providing another potential catalyst.

According to Andre Dragosch, the dollar index's drop to 97.27, its lowest since February 2022, is very bullish for Bitcoin (BTC) as it eases financial conditions and boosts risk-taking, based on TradingView data. Nvidia (NVDA) shares surged to a record high, showing a strong 0.80 correlation with BTC, indicating shared market sentiment. Additionally, yield curve steepening and consumer expectations below 80 signal potential recession, prompting traders to price in Fed rate cuts, as per Kurt S. Altrichter's analysis on X and Conference Board data.

According to Andre Dragosch, the dollar index dropping to its lowest level since March 2022 supports global money supply growth and bitcoin's bullish outlook, as cited from TradingView data. Nvidia shares hitting a record high with a strong 90-day correlation coefficient of 0.80 to BTC signals increased risk-on sentiment in crypto trading. Kurt S. Altrichter highlights that the yield curve steepening and falling two-year yield indicate potential recession risks, while traders are pricing in Fed rate cuts based on CME FedWatch tool data, potentially boosting BTC demand.

According to Andre Dragosch of Bitwise, the dollar index decline to 97.27, its lowest since February 2022 as per TradingView data, is bullish for Bitcoin and global money supply growth. Nvidia (NVDA) shares reached a record high with a 0.80 correlation to BTC, indicating strong risk-on sentiment. Kurt S. Altrichter noted that yield curve steepening could signal a recession, while Conference Board data revealed consumer expectations below the 80 recession threshold. Traders are pricing in Fed rate cuts, with swaps expecting easing per Bloomberg and the CME FedWatch tool.

According to Omkar Godbole (@godbole17), the Dollar Index (DXY) may have formed a bottom, with expectations of a rebound towards the 102 level (source: Twitter, June 18, 2025). For cryptocurrency traders, a strengthening dollar historically exerts downward pressure on assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), as crypto markets often move inversely to the dollar. If the DXY climbs to 102, traders should monitor major crypto pairs for potential short-term volatility and possible pullbacks. This development is especially relevant for those trading BTCUSD and ETHUSD pairs.

According to market analysts, the dollar index (DXY) falling below 98 for the first time since early 2022 signals a shift that could boost cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC), as a weaker dollar eases financial conditions and benefits risk assets. This decline is driven by US headline inflation at 2.4% year-over-year, below consensus estimates, as per recent data, and a 99.8% probability of a Fed rate cut in June, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. De-dollarization narratives and Trump administration policy uncertainties are accelerating the dollar's fall, potentially fueling crypto gains.

According to market analysis, the dollar index (DXY) fell below 98 for the first time since early 2022, signaling a weakening U.S. dollar that historically boosts risk assets like bitcoin (BTC). U.S. headline inflation came in at 2.4% year-over-year, below the consensus estimate of 2.5%, strengthening expectations for a dovish Federal Reserve policy shift. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 99.8% probability of a rate cut in June, with the target range expected to drop to 4.25-4.50%. Growing de-dollarization narratives and policy uncertainty from the Trump administration's trade policies are accelerating the dollar's decline, as warned by Bank of America.

According to Mihir (@RhythmicAnalyst), the Dollar Index (DXY) has reversed its four-month downtrend, rebounding off the S4 support level on the monthly chart. If DXY approaches the critical 103 level, pressure is expected on the cryptocurrency market as historically, a stronger dollar often leads to capital outflows from risk assets, including crypto. Traders should monitor DXY's approach to 103 for potential bearish signals across major cryptocurrencies. Source: Mihir (@RhythmicAnalyst) on Twitter, May 12, 2025.